What defines the Risk Weather status, from ‘Low’ and ‘Medium’ to ‘High’ and ‘Very High’?

Adaptive currently uses an absolute scale for Risk Weather status, based on the Risk Weather definition:

Risk Weather VIX Range Frequency


Low 0 to 15 34% VIX 15 is Medium
Medium 15 to 20 28% VIX 20 is High
High 20 to 30 30% VIX 30 is Very High
Very High 30 or Greater 8%

“Frequency” is a measure of how much time the market has spent historically in these various ratings, with “Low” the most common—and “Very High” the most rare—over the last three decades.

chart with both the VIX with S&P500 shows that “Very High” tends to correlate with stock market crashes, such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 and the Covid Crash of March 2020.