Adaptive currently uses an absolute scale for Risk Weather status, based on the Risk Weather definition:
| Risk Weather | VIX Range | Frequency
1990-2022 |
Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 0 to 15 | 34% | VIX 15 is Medium |
| Medium | 15 to 20 | 28% | VIX 20 is High |
| High | 20 to 30 | 30% | VIX 30 is Very High |
| Very High | 30 or Greater | 8% |
“Frequency” is a measure of how much time the market has spent historically in these various ratings, with “Low” the most common—and “Very High” the most rare—over the last three decades.
A chart with both the VIX with S&P500 shows that “Very High” tends to correlate with stock market crashes, such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 and the Covid Crash of March 2020.